I’m in many fantasy football leagues (too many really). I’m participating in 2 leagues that are hosted by the fantasy football team at Yahoo.com. I’ve done really well in those leagues so far. Below is the breakdown of those leagues and my standing in them.

Brad Evan’s (Yahoo Fantasy Writer) – Silence the Noise Challenge League – 2nd out of 20 (7-0 record)
Brandon Funston’s (Yahoo Fantasy Writer) – BFun Twitter League – 1st out of 14 (7-0)

I also started a FantasyFootballSoup.com experts league on ESPN. That league features some serious players in the fantasy football community (Razzball, RosterDoc, WhopperFootball, TheFantasyFix, HattyWaiverWire, FantasyFootballRoundTable, ValueTownFantasy).

My team is 3-3-1 in that league. It’s a highly competitive league, 12 team league. That record is good for 5th place overall, which means my team would be playoff bound if the season ended today.

We’re almost at the mid way point of the NFL season. Should be an interested and fun rest of the way. We hope to see you on FantasyFootballSoup.com.

You can follow me on Twitter @FFSoup

If you draft a Kicker or a Defense, you’re wasting a pick. The only time you should draft a Kicker or a Defense is if you’re drafting after the season starts. Predicting and projecting the value of Kicker’s and Defense’s is particularly hard to do. A good Defense one year can be one of the worst the next. Kickers are also especially tough to predict. With Kicker’s the difference between the 6th and 12th Kicker is normally pretty slim anyway, so don’t waste a pick. You can always play the waiver wire and find good value. Also, rarely does a team that drafts a Kicker or Defense end the season with the same one they originally drafted. The turnover on those positions is so high, why waste a pick, when there are solid options you can pick up on the waiver wire?

To really hammer home this draft strategy, in my league last season only 4 of 12 teams finished the season with the same Defense they originally drafted. One of those teams still had the Steelers Defense he drafted, but it wasn’t even his best defense. In going one step further, only 3 of 12 teams still had the original Kicker they drafted at the end of the season. There is no reason to draft a Kicker or a Defense in your draft, instead opt to stock up on position players late in your draft.

In looking back over my 12 team, PPR league’s draft last season, this draft theory makes perfect sense. I didn’t draft a Kicker or a Defense in that draft. While one team took the Titan’s Defense in the 11th round, I took Beanie Wells. Also available in the 11th round were Jamaal Charles, Ricky Williams and Mike Sims-Walker. While 3 teams took Defenses in the 12th, I took Sidney Rice. Round 15 of the draft saw several Defenses taken (Chicago, Dallas and Miami). Still on the board in the 15th were Miles Austin and Jeremy Maclin. All of us know now that Miles Austin turned into a stud. But let’s look at Maclin, who an owner could’ve taken in round 15. In the heart of the fantasy season, Week 10 – 13, Maclin averaged 5.25 catches and 71.5 yards and had 1 TD over those 4 games. That’s an average of 13.5 points in one of the most critical stretches of the fantasy season. He also had 6 catches for 92 yards in week 16 (most leagues championship week). That’s really solid PPR production from a guy you could’ve taken late in your draft, instead of taking a Kicker or a Defense.

Another good reason to not draft a Kicker or Defense is preseason injuries. Imagine you draft the Jets D and Revis gets hurt in the preseason. That could significantly change the value of the Jets D you just wasted a pick taking. However, if you take a starters backup late in the draft and the starter gets hurt in preseason – then you instantly have a starter and add value to your team. Just imagine – you take a late round flyer on Toby Gerhart (instead of drafting a Kicker) and AP tweaks a hammy in the final preseason game and will be out 2 weeks. Look at the value that’s just been added to your team. Even if you roll the dice and take some backups late in the draft and they don’t pan out, simply drop them before the season starts and get a Kicker and Defense off the waiver wire. Once the season starts and bye weeks kick in, there will be plenty of turnover with Kickers and Defenses anyway.

We all know that you’ll need to have a Kicker and a Defense on your team and in your lineup to start the season. I’m just saying don’t draft one. Wait until closer to the season starts to add a Kicker and Defense off the waiver wire to your team. Stock up on position players later in your draft. Then cross your fingers that a few of them turn into this year’s Sidney Rice and Miles Austin.

Tell me this, if you only did something one time a year, would you be good at it? That answer is most likely – NO! If that’s the case then why would you think you can do one draft, once a year, and end up with good results? You shouldn’t, yet people do it all the time. Don’t make this mistake, be active in mock drafts. Try to be a part of as many as you can. At a minimum, I would suggest at least one mock draft a week, for around a month leading up to your draft.

Participating in mock drafts is essential to fantasy football success. They help you get a feel for when certain players are being drafted. Mock drafts help you prepare for your live draft. Being active in mock drafts can make your real team an instant contender. Most people make the mistake of not competing in enough mock drafts. The only draft they take part in, is their league’s actual draft. Practice makes perfect, so get out there and join some mock drafts. Do things you wouldn’t normally do. Try waiting until round 8-10 to get a QB, see who’s still available. Try taking WR’s with your first 3 picks. Take a TE earlier than you normally would. Part of the fun of mock drafts is bucking conventional wisdom and seeing where it lands you. In a mock draft nothing is out of bounds, try anything, just make sure you’re taking them seriously. If you don’t engage in mock drafts, you’ll be sorry you didn’t.

Maybe even more important than mock drafts is ADP. ADP stands for Average Draft Position. The ADP of a player is the average position that player is being picked in fantasy drafts. You should definitely study ADP when leading up to your draft. I use ADP to set up my draft strategy. It can be an incredibly beneficial tool to your draft success (or failure if you don’t use it).

Using ADP helps you know what players to target and when. For example – if I’m in a 12 team, 15 round league and I get the 5th draft spot, I know my picks are 5, 20, 29, 44, 53, 68, 77, 92, 101, 116, 125, 140, 149, 164, 173. I can then look at my ADP list and see who might be available around those picks. What I do next is begin to put players into “buckets”. I’ll usually look at my draft spots and then look at players ADP. My next step is to look 5 players before my pick and 5 players after. That gives me a “bucket” of players that might be available at that spot in the draft. If I have pick 92, then I’m going to look at who’s going from 87-97. That gives me a “bucket” of 11 players that I can feel confident about targeting with the 92 draft spot. Imagine going into a draft already knowing who’s most likely available when it’s your pick. That’s a big time edge.

ADP can also help with not taking a player too high, or expecting them to be available too late. If you’re high on Darren McFadden and you see his ADP is 85, then in this scenario, you might want to consider taking him with the 77th pick, or you could gamble that he’ll be around at the 92nd pick. The thing I like about ADP is you’re able look objectively and say “alright, if I don’t take McFadden at 77, Reggie Bush’s ADP is 92, I could hold off on McFadden and try to take Reggie at 92”. It doesn’t always work out exactly like you want it to, but at least you’ll have a plan in place. Using ADP gives you an idea of when players are going and who you can reasonably expect to be available for your picks. If you’re serious about fantasy football you should be using ADP.

This is not to say that you shouldn’t follow your gut. If you’re really high on a player, you should bump him up your draft board. For instance, if you really like LeSean McCoy and his ADP is currently 37, there is nothing wrong with moving him up your board and taking him before his ADP. Use ADP as an outline for your draft, but by all means, if you have strong gut feeling about a player – GO WITH IT. Don’t draft solely on ADP, but make sure it’s an important part of your pre-draft research.

When you’re preparing for your draft, do your due diligence. You’ll only get out, what you put in. Participate in as many mock drafts as possible. This will help you stay cool under pressure and avoid the dreaded “PANIC PICK”. Use ADP to help you target players at your picks. ADP can help you get a solid draft strategy together. Use these valuable tools to have a great draft and make your team a challenger. If you use these tools leading up to your draft, they WILL help. Knowing that you’ve done everything you can prior to draft day is key. You’ll feel confident going into the draft knowing that you’re equipped for domination.

My cardinal fantasy football trading rule – DON’T TAKE A 2 FOR 1 TRADE, UNLESS YOU’RE GETTING THE 1. A 2 for 1 trade usually means that the team giving up 2 players is getting 1 stud in return. This also means the other team is giving up a stud to take on 2 players of lesser quality. I’ve never been a fan of the 2 for 1, unless I’m getting the 1 stud. Normally, the 2 players the team will get in return aren’t as consistent and can’t be relied upon, like the 1 stud. Every year I’ll try to make many 2 for 1 trades and when I’m able to land one, it always seems to instantly make my team better. These trades don’t always happen (and they shouldn’t). Pulling off the 2 for 1 is tough, but it can be done. Making it happen is all about timing. There are several situations when the conditions are ripe for the 2 for 1.

Below are several situations where the pump is primed for making a 2 for 1 trade:

1) when a stud player is facing a tough matchup for a fantasy team that has to win now – This situation usually means the owner is desperate, which is a perfect time for the 2 for 1. If your team is in a position where you can take the stud, DO IT. It will make your team stronger in the long run.

2) the 2 players you’re trying to trade have great matchups in the near future – I try to leverage this in my favor all the time. If you have a mid-tier player with a couple great matchups on the horizon, use that to your advantage. Package that player with another player and try to get a stud.

3) some team just lost another stud to an injury – think Owen Daniels last season. He was one of top TE’s in the league until he had the season ending injury. Owners that had Daniels were probably used to consistent production from their TE position. With him out of the lineup, they had a big need to fill.

4) one of the 2 players your trying to trade just got a starting position due to an injury to the current starter (non serious injury where the current starter will be back in several weeks) – use the momentum from gaining a new starter. Bundle that new starter in with another player and try to reel in a stud

5) a good team has just lost a couple games in a row and the owner is in “panic mode” – this happens every year. Some team starts the season 5-1, then they lose 2 or 3 in a row and completely panic. This is an opportune time to try and make the 2 for 1 happen.

Making a 2 for 1 happen is tough, but it can be done. Once you find the right 2 for 1 situation, jump on it. Be fair, but relentless. Offer several combinations of 2 for 1’s (just make sure you’re always getting the 1). You don’t know how high or low the other owner might have a certain player. It never hurts to see, just make sure the trade is reasonable. Don’t ever offer a trade that you know is really lopsided. You can offer trades that you think are a little in your favor, but please no – Chris Chambers and Mushin Muhammad for Brandon Marshall type trades. Make sure it’s realistic. If it’s not feasible, you’ll lose credibility, insult the other owner and never been able to pull the trade off. No one wins every trade, but you should win the majority of them. Use the information above and strike while the iron is hot to pull off your own 2 for 1 trade.

PPR leagues are won with solid WR play.  Most PPR leagues play 3 WR’s (most even have a flex or two also).   Those slots have the potential to earn big points with rock-solid WR play in PPR leagues. To win your league, you need to maximize that potential.  Most people will think that having a stable of RB’s wins fantasy championships – IT DOESN’T.  Let’s look at some RB stats from last season.  If a RB average’s 60 rushing yards a game, that’s 960 yards in a 16 game fantasy season.  Most leagues end in week 16, so week 17 stats don’t count in a fantasy season (sorry Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles).  In most leagues 60 rushing yards is 6 points (1 point for every 10 rushing yards).  Now, what if I told you that only 13 RB’s had a better average than 60 rushing yards a game last season, you’d probably have to read that statement again.  If you did read it again, it’s true.  Only 13 RB’s had 960 rushing yards or more.  I don’t know about you, but in my league top 13 RB’s are normally 2^nd or 3^rd round picks.  Getting 6 points of rushing yards a game isn’t what I’m looking for out of my 2^nd or 3^rd round pick. 

Let’s go one step further.  If a RB averages 80 yards rushing a game, that’s 1280 rushing yards a season (or 8 fantasy points for rushing yards).  How many RB’s do you think averaged 80 rushing yards a game?  It was just 5.  That’s right, only 5 RB’s in the entire league averaged 80 rushing yards a game in a 16 game fantasy season (keep in mind week 17 stats don’t count).  Ray Rice didn’t even do it.  Guys you drafted in the top rounds like Frank Gore and DeAngelo Williams didn’t average 80 yards a game. Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber and Joseph Addai didn’t even average 60 rushing yards a game.  Those are very high draft picks to not get great production.

I think there has been a decline in the fantasy value of RB’s over the last couple seasons.  The decline of the RB has a lot to do with the rise of the passing era in the NFL.  It also has a lot to do with Running Back By Committee (RBBC) situations.  Most teams deploy a multiple RB offense.  This leads to less carries, less yardage and less fantasy points.  However, the exact opposite can be said for WR’s.  A starting WR is going to play, on most, if not all downs.  There is a reason we don’t have an acronym called WRBC (Wide Receiver By Committee).  Most starting WR’s are on the field regardless of down or distance.  With the NFL becoming increasingly more pass focused, the value of WR’s will continue to go up.  WR’s are now more value than RB’s, especially in PPR leagues.  You should draft accordingly in your 2010 league.

Drafting a solid stable of WR’s wins PPR championships.  How many teams out there coasted to the fantasy playoffs because of WR play?  While some teams were taking Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber in the first 3 rounds, someone was taking Reggie Wayne and Wes Welker or Brandon Marshall.  While someone wasted a 4^th or 5^th round pick on Steve Slaton (if not higher), someone took Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson or Vincent Jackson.  Also factor in these teams could’ve take Steve Smith (Giants) and Sidney Rice in the later rounds of the draft.  That team had the potential to have Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson and Steve Smith.  That team wins championships.  If you think that’s not better than a team with Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton and your WR’s being guys like Dwayne Bowe, Lee Evans and Bernard Berrian – I want to play in your league.

I’m just saying we, in general (me included sometimes) draft RB’s way to high.  My draft strategy over the past couple seasons has been to take WR’s early and often in my PPR drafts. For your draft this season, don’t do the conventional RB, RB, WR in your league.  Zig when everyone else is zagging.  If you have a high 1^st round pick, consider going RB, WR, WR, WR in your PPR draft.  Or even WR, RB, WR, WR.  You don’t win fantasy championships without consistent WR play.  Don’t waste high picks on inconsistent RB’s.  Do yourself a favor and take some chances on WR’s during your draft this season.  Take some earlier than you normally would.  It could pay out with a championship trophy.

Darren McFadden – he has never reached his potential. I’ve always thought he was a “boom or bust” type player. I’m leaning more towards the boom side this season. The Raiders got better with the addition of Jason Campbell. By my count, Campbell threw to RB’s 85 times for 821 yards and 4 TD’s in 2009. And he did it, throwing to Quinton Ganther, Rock Cartwright (now in Oakland) and Mike Sellers. None of these guys catch it like McFadden. I’ve seen 2 major websites fantasy projections and McFadden was out of the top 25 RB’s in both. Could be this year’s “lightning in a bottle”.

Reggie Bush – he had 47 catches for 335 yards and 3 TD’s last season. If he stays healthy he could reach 60+ catches this season. He’s obviously a bit one dimensional, but he plays for the Saints. I like his upside this year. I’d be willing to gamble on 55-65 catches, 800-900 total yards and at least a handful of TD’s.

Tim Hightower – everyone will be riding the “Beanie Bus” this season. I’m not jumping on just yet. Hightower had 63 catches for 428 yards in 2009. That’s really solid, especially when you factor in his 500 rushing yards and 8 TD’s. Beanie will be the sexy pick in 2010, but Hightower could remain productive. Remember, there is no more Kurt Warner or Anquan Boldin. Matt Leinart could be checking down a lot to his RB’s. Also keep in mind, Beanie was very injury prone in college. If he were to suffer an injury, Hightower’s value would really skyrocket.

Darren Sproles – with L.T. gone, Sproles should see even more pass targets. He had 45 catches, 497 yards and 5 TD receptions in 2010. Sproles was never meant to be a feature back. He’s a chance of pace or 3rd down back. That being the case, the Chargers drafted Ryan Matthews as their bell cow in this year’s draft. However, Matthews is still an unproven rookie. I suspect Sproles will match his numbers from last season (45 receptions, 840 combined yards, 7 TD’s). He plays in one of the NFL’s best offenses and has a great rapport with Phillip Rivers. If Matthews is a flop, Sproles could be the steal of most fantasy drafts.

Jahvid Best – Kevin Smith suffered a season ending knee injury late last season. He will most likely start the season on the PUP list. If he does, Best should start right away. Even if Smith comes back, I think Best still has a leg up for the starting role. Although I’m terrified about his injury history, I do like where he is currently being projected (mid to late 20’s in RB rankings). That’s good value for a starting RB, even if he is a rookie. You’d have to love his upside if he plays immediately. If he does begin the season as the starter, move him up your draft board, especially in PPR leagues. I don’t think he’ll score that many TD’s, but he could post 50+ receptions. Head Coach Jim Schwartz is on record raving about Best’s skill set.

RB’s most likely to kill each other’s value this season in PPR leagues -

Matt Forte/Chester Taylor – both catch the ball very well out of the backfield and should vulture each other touches

Fred Jackson/C.J. Spiller/Marshawn Lynch – just not enough touches to go around in Buffalo to keep them all fantasy relevant

Both Moss & Marshall face the Jets D and “Revis Island” twice before
week 14.  In 2 games versus the Jets last year Moss went a combined
9-58-1 TD.  The first meeting Moss went 4-24, the second was 5-34-1.
The TD catch was a quick hitter right at the goal line.  Before that
TD catch, Moss was hovering right at 4-30.  Moss’s combined 2 game
numbers last season are similar to what he normally puts up in one
game.  Marshall didn’t visit “Revis Island” in 2009, but he did in
2008.  In 2008 he had 5-55 against the Jets.  If you combine the last
3 games where Moss and Marshall played the Jets, that’s a total of
14-113-1.  This is from 2 of the league’s best WR’s (and keep in mind
the Jets D has gotten better since last season – SCARY).  That’s an
average of 4.6 catches, 37.6 yards with 1 TD every 3 games.  That’s
not exactly what you would expect from your top WR’s, regardless of
who they are playing.

Let’s say that you did take both Moss and Marshall in the first couple
rounds.  You’d have 2 stud WR’s, but you’d also have a combined 4
games against the Jets.  That’s 31% of your fantasy season.  That’s a
lot of games where your top WR might not produce like one.  You’ll
also need to factor in the schedule of Moss and Marshall against the
Jets.  Moss plays the Jets in week 13.  Week 13 is a crucial point in
the fantasy season.  It’s most likely the last week before your
playoffs start.  It could be a win or not make the playoffs situation.
 If I’m in that position, I’m not sure I feel comfortable with Moss
against the Jets.  That’s also a game late in the year, in Foxboro.
What are the chances the weather won’t be terrible?  OK, you escaped
with a win in week 13.  Next up you have Marshall facing the Jets in
Week 14.  That’s normally the first week of the fantasy playoffs.  Now
the stakes ARE win or go home.  That game is in New York.  So, it’s a
home game for the Jets, late in the season.  Extremely tough matchup
to start, then factor in the Dolphins are a warm weather team.  Again,
the weather could be terrible in this game.  This is as tough as it
gets over a 2 week stretch, in a situation where matchups really
matter a lot.

I’m not saying don’t draft these guys, both are obviously #1 WR’s.
I’m saying if you target them both, you should know the situation &
schedule.  When your top 2 WR’s visit “Revis Island” 4 times over a 13
game fantasy regular season, you could be setting yourself up for
disappointment.  Or you could always draft them both and cross your
fingers that the Jets D implodes (or that Rex Ryan gets hungry and
eats the entire secondary during a practice).  I think it’s far more
likely that you can expect 4.6 catches and 37.6 yards per game from
Moss and Marshall against the Jets in 2010.